No End in Sight

The story remains very much the same, gas prices continue to rise as crude oil prices break new records nearly every week. Several people including politicians and oil market analysts are optimistic that prices will soon level off and begin to decrease, but others are saying there is no end in sight for rising fuel costs. In fact, Arjun N. Murti an analyst at Goldman Sachs, who has become what the New York Times call the oracle of oil with several very accurate forecasts, is predicting a coming price surge that will put crude oil above $200 a barrel. If correct, as Murti has been in the past predicting, among other historic points, when oil would surpass $100 a barrel, the price per gallon would rise to $6. Already many areas of the U.S. are paying $4 or more at the pump with crude oil having jumped above $130 a barrel. [Sources: New York Times, Washington Post, Bloomberg]

The Question of Ethanol

The production and use of biofuels, especially ethanol, in the transportation sector has been a debate since the beginning of their introduction as a possible mainstream alternative to fossil fuels. The use of food crops to produce fuel and the impact it is having on food prices is the most recent argument against the use of ethanol and other biofuels. As a solution, investors have begun promoting the use of grasses and weeds to make ethanol. However, this solution may also cause severe problems. At a United Nations meeting last week, several scientists from the Global Invasive Species Program, the Nature Conservancy and the International Union for Conservation of Nature reported that many of the plants proposed as the solution to using food crops for ethanol production are invasive species that could cause significant economic and ecological problems if they were to be grown and harvested at a large or even small scale. Is it time to wave goodbye to ethanol? [Sources: New York Times, Washington Post, Boston Globe]

CNG

Is the U.S. neglecting to take advantage of an opportunity that could further diversify the fuel options available to U.S. drivers? Compressed Natural Gas, an alternative to petroleum, sells at about a $1 less than gasoline, but has barely been made available to the U.S. consumer market. The U.S. has the 6th largest natural gas reserves in the world, but only consumers from two states, New York and California, can purchase natural gas vehicles. Moreover, although there are 800,000 natural-gas-powered vehicles of which there are several makes, only one type of vehicle is available in the U.S. - the Honda Civic GX. Honda sold 459 Civic GXs last year in New York and California. Jeffrey Seisler of Clean Fuels Consulting says people are suffering at the pump because too few alternative fuels have been made readily available to consumers. [Source: Boston Globe]

Hybrid - Electric

Honda Motor Co. has announced that it will unveil an exclusively hybrid sedan for purchase next year. The vehicle will be made available in Japan, North America and Europe as the company hopes to hybridize 10 percent of its fleet by 2010. Honda also plans to add a hybrid version of the Fit to the market. Moving even further in the direction of electric powered vehicles, Bob Shrier, founder of Liberty Electric Cars Ltd. and a graduate of Middlebury College, has announced that his United Kingdom based company will invest £30 million in the production of high performance electric vehicles. It is unsure whether any of these pure electric vehicles will hit the US market, but in other HEV news, Toyota Motor Corp., the world's biggest automaker, has set the goal of selling 1 million hybrid vehicles annually by 2010. [Sources: Reuters & Auto Industry]

Water, Vinegar, and Gasoline

With relatively few alternatives to the gasoline powered vehicle on the market, smaller companies and individual motorists are creating their own alternatives. Chad Bradshaw of Richmond, Vermont is one of these innovative motorists. Experiencing the high costs of fuel first hand as the owner of a construction business, Chad began searching for a feasible alternative that could save him some money and do some good for the environment. His search ended when he found MagDrive, a company based out of Georgia specializing in a conversion kit that supplements the gasoline powered car with hydrogen. The MagDrive kit uses distilled water and vinegar to create a hydrogen-oxygen gas liquid that is then injected into the intake system and mixed with the gasoline. The conversion allows vehicles driven on average 30 miles a day to get between 20 and 60 percent better fuel economy. The unit, which can cost between $700 and $1,600, is said to provide a savings of 35 percent in fuel costs. [Source: Burlington Free Press]

Popular Park and Ride

With increasing gas prices, soaring bus ridership, and carpooling on the rise, Vermont's Park and Ride facilities are overflowing. Interstate 89's exit 11 Richmond Park and Ride has 105 parking spaces, but as of the past few months the lot has seen several more vehicles than it has spaces to park. Vermont has 27 Park and Ride facilities of these 27 Richmond's is the state's second largest. Nevertheless, 105 spots is just not enough, people have been parking on the grass, placing their vehicles wherever they can find space. As a result, and with the expectation that people will continue to seek alternatives to the single occupancy vehicle (SOV), the state is building a 60 space gravel lot in Richmond to accommodate the influx of vehicles. [Source: Burlington Free Press]

In Other Vermont Transportation News...

Some Say Yes & Some Say No
With the release of Vermont's draft energy plan some are happy and others are a bit perplexed. [Source: Burlington Free Press]



Getting on Board
Rail is the more efficient transportation answer, but when will it make a full-on comeback in the Northeast? [Source: Hippo Press]



Reducing Your Transportation Footprint
Researchers and mechanics including Mechanic Keith Corkins and the UVM Transportation Research Center's Director, Lisa Aultman-Hall, offer a bit of insight on how to "green" your transportation habits. [Source: WCAX]



Medicaid
The Vermont Public Transportation Association will remain in its administrative position of transporting Medicaid patients. [Source: Reformer]



Roads and Bridges
Another $14 million has been made available for road and bridge repair. [Source: Burlington Free Press]

A Glimpse into Transportation at Large...

Travelling Less
For the first time since 1979 the miles driven on public roads in the U.S. declined in the month March. [Source: United Press International]



The Yellow Bus
The EPA continues to provide funding to help reduce the pollution emitted by school buses. Approximately $174,000 was just awarded to Erie County, New York. [Source: EPA]



Environmentally Friendly Warranties
What is the automotive sector guaranteeing? [Source: Warranty Week]



Ethanol
After investing in more than 30,000 ethanol fueled trucks and minivans the post office is consuming millions of gallons more in fuel. [Source: Bloomberg]



Trucks
Ford is revising its truck design and plans to debut a smaller, lighter, more fuel efficient pickup. [Source: Detroit News]

Gas Prices and Behavior Change

How do drivers change behavior in reaction to higher gas prices? Recent Vermont media stories describe anecdotal evidence of changes in consumer behavior such as increases in bicycle and scooter sales (See Clean Cities Archives). Academic research indicates that changes in behavior occur over one to five years and only if the higher prices are sustained. For example, a study from Europe estimates every 10 percent increase in gas prices will reduce fuel consumption by 2.5 percent in the first year, and 6 percent in total over multiple years (Goodwin, Dargay, Hanly: 2004). A recent study by the Congressional Budget Office suggests that 10 percent increases will only reduce gasoline purchases by .06 percent in the short term and 4 percent in the long term. Fuel consumption drops more rapidly than miles traveled for three reasons: Drivers first save fuel by driving more efficiently (slower, less sharp braking, etc. - Learn More!), by choosing routes that burn less gasoline and by driving the most fuel efficient vehicle in their household. The impacts on rural residents are greater than in urban areas (Pew Survey).


Evidence exists in Vermont that fuel consumption is declining, e.g. gasoline sales in March 2008 were 15 percent below the sales of March 2007 (http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=ezh9tncab.0.0.78995ccab.0&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.leg.state.vt.us%2Fjfo%2FTransportation.htm&id=preview) yet accurate data on the impacts of higher gas prices on consumer behavior is lacking. The Transportation Research Center is collecting data on Vermont transportation energy use for a report to be produced this summer. Send us your story!



Richard Watts
Research Director
UVM Transportation Research Center



Become a Vermont Clean Cities Guest Contributor! Send us your article with sources!

Weekly Petro-Stats

Gas at the Pump, Vermont


This Week (May 21-28) = $3.870/gallon
Last Week (May 14-20) = $3.759/gallon
Last Year (May 14-28) = $3.028/gallon


Crude Oil Futures


This Week (May 21-28) = $131.21/barrel
Last Week (May 14-20) = $126.15/barrel